How can schools and colleges spot signals and prepare themselves for bumps in the road ahead? An approach called ‘futures thinking’ could be the answer.
Back in 2020, I was working as a secondary school teacher.
Education hadn’t seen any major changes for centuries and I was still teaching with textbooks that had graffiti from 1970s!
The only evidence of digital transformation was a clunky registration system and some incredibly inaccessible slide decks.
Then lockdown happened, and suddenly, I was expected to teach more than 150 students remotely, from my home, with only the desktop PC from my classroom. And most of my students had no access to IT at all.
Since working at Sparck I’ve learned about futures thinking and recently had the opportunity to run a futures thinking workshop with an education organisation.
Reflecting on my time in teaching, I can’t help but think how beneficial it would have been in that context.
Anticipating what might happen
We in education couldn't have predicted the COVID-19 pandemic a decade ago.
Even the UK government, with all its resources, was notably unprepared, with no stocks of PPE or track-and-trace system.
But I have no doubt that if we’d made the time we could have:
- spotted some important signals
- identified the need for a digitally connected education system
- documented processes
- made contingency plans
- started training staff
With this mindset, we might have been better prepared to deal with the sudden shift to schooling at home when it came.
While we can't go back in time, we can start to be more active now in spotting signals to prepare for the next shock that comes down the line.
What is futures thinking?
Futures thinking isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about expanding our horizons, challenging our assumptions, spotting signals, and preparing for potential futures.
It enables us to understand the driving factors and context of those different future scenarios.
Futures thinking helps us identify patterns of change, emerging trends, surprises and disruptors early. That gives us the power to create narratives of the future – including telling the story of how we’d prefer things to play out.
By adopting this forward-thinking perspective, we can develop ‘disruptive innovations’ – new tools, products and services that can change how things might play out.
Futures thinking in education
Education aims to have long-term benefits. To achieve this, we need to understand what is changing in society and the potential impact of these changes.
We often struggle with this holistic approach and focus only on the short-term issues and immediate results.
Futures thinking can benefit education by helping education organisations anticipate and adapt to changing needs and expectations of learners, educators, employers and society.
It can also help identify and address gaps and challenges in current education systems and to explore alternative and innovative solutions.
Futures thinking might help education organisations to answer questions like:
- What are the trends and drivers shaping the future of education?
- What are the uncertainties and risks we need to be aware of?
- What are the opportunities and innovations we can create?
- What are the values and visions we want to guide our actions?
In 2022, the OECD carried out a project to identify trends and potential scenarios to support long-term strategic thinking in education.
You can find the report on the OECD website.
They developed four potential scenarios for the future of schooling over the next 15 to 20 years.
1. Schooling extended
Education extending beyond the current mandatory age. By incorporating digital learning environments and personalised learning experiences education will be able to seamlessly integrate into working life.
2. Education outsourced
Community-based initiatives, greater choice in learning programmes, and digital learning networks.
3. Schools as learning hubs
Schools develop new competence recognition methods, developing their own initiatives, and form stronger partnerships with community resources.
4. Learn-as-you-go
Education becomes more accessible by leveraging digital technology and artificial intelligence (AI).
Futures thinking in practice in education
How can education organisations start to explore the four scenarios set out by the OECD?
One of the great things about this approach is that it doesn’t require huge resources – at its simplest, you just need some people around a table and a facilitator who can help people share their ideas.
First, start to look out for and gather future signals.
Look back to see what has happened to cause changes in education historically. Conduct research into education trends and policies across the world. And find drivers – the long-term trends that might affect education in the future.
Next, create future scenarios. Brainstorm ideas for how things might play out for you and for your organisation.
Consider the impact and consequences of each scenario, thinking a decade or more into the future.
And, finally, keep doing this. Come back together at intervals to generate more ideas, and to iterate the ones you’ve already documented.
Futures thinking is not a one-time exercise but a mindset that requires curiosity, creativity and collaboration.
Find out more about futures thinking
If you want to learn more about futures thinking, and get insight into how it can help organisations tackle uncertainty, I recommend this blog post on the BJSS website.
